Yreka, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

122
FXUS66 KMFR 032133
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
233 PM PDT Sat May 3 2025

.DISCUSSION...Showers continue east of the Cascades this afternoon,
while activity to the west has eased. While most showers east of the
Cascades will be scattered and unimpactful, thunderstorm chances are
in the forecast this afternoon and evening. The best chances (15-
20%) are over Modoc and southern Lake County, with lesser chances
(10-15%) over northern Lake County. These chances will ease
overnight, although scattered light showers might continue over the
easternmost borders into early Sunday morning.

Sunday marks a transition from active to stable conditions. While
Lake and Modoc counties will see cooler daytime temperatures
continue into Sunday, most other areas will see their high
temperatures rise by 5 to 10 degrees. Even with this warming,
Sunday`s daytime highs will be at or below seasonal averages for the
area. Cool nighttime lows continue into Sunday night.

Early in the week, a progressive ridge moves over the area. In
general, temperatures along the coast and in the Umpqua Valley peak
on Tuesday. Temperatures east of the Cascades peak on Wednesday. The
Illinois, Rogue, Scott, and Shasta valleys stay warm through both
days. While the progressive ridge is largely to the east by
Wednesday evening, a stationary ridge building over the southwest
United States supports continued warm temperatures on Thursday and
Friday, possibly into Saturday as well. In general, temperatures
look to be between 5 and 15 degrees above normal across the area
through the week. Overnight lows will warm steadily as well through
the week as well.

While daytime temperatures are not forecast to
reach hazardous levels, individuals extremely sensitive to warmer
temperatures may want to be cautious when traveling outside through
the week. This is especially true in the afternoon and early evening
hours, when temperatures are at their highest.

Probabilistic data reflects significant uncertainty for conditions
on Saturday and beyond. NBM high temperature forecasts show an
interquartile range of 10 degrees for locations across the area on
Saturday and beyond. ECMWF and GFS meteogram guidance show similar
statistical ranges. Deterministic imagery for the ECMWF and GFS show
activity approaching on Saturday then bringing showers on Sunday or
Monday, but the ECMWF has a trough moving over the western US while
the GFS keeps a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska. Meteogram
guidance for both models show somewhat organized precipitation
signals for this weekend into early next week, but the timing and
amounts also show wide ranges. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs...Showers activity across the area today
will be focused mainly east of the Cascades, and will gradually
diminish and move to the east through this afternoon. Overall, VFR
will prevail across the forecast area, with some periods of MVFR in
heavier showers, and along the coast. There is still a slight chance
(15-25%) of thunderstorms in the SE portions of the area (Modoc/Lake
counties) this afternoon.

Most areas will have gusty N-NW winds this afternoon, generally in
the 20-25 kt range, though some areas from the Warner Mtns eastward
could have peak gusts to 30kt. Winds will diminish by late evening.
-BPN



&&

MARINE...Updated 200 PM Saturday, May 3, 2025...A thermal trough
will strengthen along the northern California coast through this
weekend and into early next week, producing gusty north winds and
steep to very steep seas. Peak winds are forecast during the
afternoons and evening both Sunday and Monday, with areas of very
steep and hazardous seas south of Port Orford and gale gusts
possible south of Gold Beach. Winds and seas remain elevated but
improve


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for
     PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

TAD/BPN/TAD